With Villa consistently outperforming expectations, the 1/1 (50% implied probability) being offered by bookmakers like bet365 could be underestimating their true potential by as much as 25%.
Aston Villa currently sit seventh in the Premier League, and with six games to go and Chelsea only ahead on goal difference, their chances of breaking into the top six look very promising.
How The Villains Have Defied Expectations
Aston Villa have made it their business this year to prove the naysayers wrong.
Let’s start with their superb Champions League run, which proved their strategy and heavy spending under Emery has been worth all the cash.
It all culminated in that nerve-shredding Quarter-Final clash against PSG (aggregate score 4–5), where even the heroics of Rashford, Tielemans, and McGinn couldn’t overturn the initial 3-1 first leg deficit.
Still, what a ride and what a performance.
Plus, they’ve been consistently strong throughout the Premier League season, taking down teams like Nottingham Forest, Manchester City and their closest challengers Chelsea as they continue to rise up the table.
They’re outperforming every metric, too.
They’re sitting a massive 19 points above their Expected Points (xPts), which would’ve landed them in 13th place if accurate.
In short, Aston Villa are defying the numbers, the critics, and the bookies both domestically and in Europe.
And with odds not budging even after that electric performance against PSG, you’ve got to wonder — are the bookmakers underestimating them all over again?
Villa’s Route to the Top Six: Why the Bookies Have It All Wrong
Standing between Aston Villa and another trip to the upper tiers of European football via a top six Premier League finish are Chelsea, Manchester City, Newcastle and Nottingham Forest.
Arsenal are pushing for the title and Liverpool are out of reach, but the rest are very much in play.
The first hurdle is Chelsea.
Both Villa and Chelsea have some tough competition: The Blues have the likes of Liverpool, Newcastle and Nottingham lined-up, while The Villains have Man City, Newcastle, Fulham and Bournemouth to contend with.
They’re neck and neck in points, but we’d give Aston Villa a clear edge here.
They’ve shown serious grit under pressure in Europe and are on a great run domestically with four wins from their last five league matches. Chelsea have only picked up two wins in that same stretch.
Even if Chelsea ends up being Villa’s main rival for sixth place, with Bournemouth unlikely to close the gap from behind, we would still say Villa deserve better than even odds.
And that’s not even taking the rest of the pack into account.
Newcastle are up next and while they are riding high off their Carabao Cup win, they are still beatable.
A Villa victory this weekend could turn the race completely on its head.
And get this, bookies have Villa as favourites in that match!
Make it make sense.
Then there’s Manchester City.
No question they are a huge test, but Villa have already beaten them this season and City have not been at their unbreakable best lately. They have just two wins in their last five matches.
Nottingham Forest are doing slightly better with nine points from five fixtures.
To put it simply, Aston Villa have a stronger recent record than three of the four teams directly above them in the table and they are somehow sitting at even odds to finish in the top six.
To say we think they’re undervalued is an understatement.
Their chances are closer to 75 percent in our eyes.
That means the bookmakers could be undervaluing them by an entire third!
Is this the best outright value bet left in the Premier League? It very well could be.
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